MUENCHHAUSEN
AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS
By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
GREENBARON@CSI.COM
=================================================================
SEPTEMBER 7, 2005
=================================================================
WELCOME!
Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.
DOWN MEMORY LANE
Item on Drudgereport.com August 30, 2005: Governor Jeb Bush (R) of Florida warns of an impending gasoline shortage in his state. In this case, any such shortage would be the result of damage to oil refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast, caused by the recent passage of Hurricane Katrina. In addition, several oil-drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, where about 25% of U.S. oil supplies are produced, appear to have been badly damaged as of this writing.
This, however, is an acute crisis, and there should be some easing during September and October, assuming that no new storm devastates the Gulf Coast. Green Baron did look at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ on August 30, to see what other tropical depressions or storms might be brewing in the North Atlantic Ocean. There was a Tropical Depression Thirteen, but so far, it has not appeared to have gained strength or headway. Then again, Katrina seemed innocuous until it suddenly gained strength just east of the Bahamas, raked southern Florida, but then struck the Gulf Coast with full fury. Thus, one should temper one’s optimism when one reads a map of a tropical cyclone’s projected track.
But Green Baron digresses. With apologies, he will return to the current acute and continuing chronic energy crisis—if crisis there indeed be—and ask his readers to accompany him on a walk down memory lane, starting with the early 1970s.
In 1972, experts warned of a looming energy crisis and gasoline shortage, despite the United States seeming awash in petroleum products. Gasoline stations slowly began to be short of gasoline sometimes, starting about February 1973. With the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war, October 6, 1973, the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced an embargo on sales and shipments of oil to the United States and any other countries that showed even the slightest inclination to aid Israel (especially the United States because then-President Nixon, essentially overruling the recommendations of his cabinet and staff, ordered shipments of arms and military equipment to the beleaguered Israelis).
During the autumn of 1973, President Nixon announced that the United States would make every effort to become energy-independent by 1980. The initiative even was dubbed “Project Independence 1980”. Although most energy experts said that achieving such independence in less than seven years was infeasible, even with a Manhattan Project-like effort—they likely were correct in that evaluation—few steps other than energy conservation, principally by industries to whom energy was a matter of dollars and cents were taken. Had serious efforts toward energy independence been initiated, perhaps the United States might have mitigated to some degree the effects of the energy crisis of 1979 (after the Shah of Iran was overthrown and an Islamist regime took power there), and the current problems now plaguing our nation.
Perhaps progressing superannuation is clouding Green Baron’s recollections, but let us continue our stroll down memory lane. Shortly after President Nixon’s pep speech about Project Independence 1980, perhaps in early December 1973, Green Baron recalls hearing news to the effect that member nations—especially Arab members—of OPEC would consider implementation of Project Independence to be “a most unfriendly act” (never mind that an embargo is an act of war under international law). He thinks he heard this news broadcast either on WAVA-FM, then an all-news radio station in Arlington, VA, or on a television news show. Whether or not Green Baron’s memory about this item is clear and correct, one thing is certain: Project Independence 1980 was never mentioned henceforth.
It should be mentioned here that Project Independence 1980 entailed not only finding and drilling for new sources of oil and gas, but also developing alternatives to petroleum. To be fair, there were efforts to use coal in an environmentally more benign manner, to try to make gaseous and liquid fuels from coal, and to increase work toward the use of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, biofuels, and the like). Under President Jimmy Carter, the National Solar Energy Laboratory was established in Boulder, CO. It still functions as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Green Baron will look into all of these alternatives in future issues of Muenchhausen.
Also, the energy crisis of 1973 spawned a new federal agency or bureaucracy, however one wishes to regard it. First came the Federal Energy Office, which evolved into the Federal Energy Administration, and finally, the cabinet-level Department of Energy (DOE), as we know it today. So one cannot, in fairness, say nothing was done. The question is, how much achieved anything, and how much was wheel spinning?
When Green Baron attended the World Energy Congress at Cobo Hall in Detroit, MI, in September 1974, he clearly heard then-President Gerald R. Ford (Nixon had left office in August 1974) give a keynote speech about “Project Interdependence” (italics Green Baron’s). Sitting in the audience, Green Baron thought of President Ford’s speech as a statement of abject surrender to OPEC. Nothing about any Project Independence was ever heard again.
Nothing about striving for energy independence was heard after the gasoline shortages of 1979, after the fall of the Shah of Iran. The United States drew no lesson even though oil and gasoline (and natural gas) prices were higher, in terms of constant 2005 dollars, than they are today. To match prices of, say, 1980—1982, crude oil would have to sell at about $90 per barrel. This could yet occur. Green Baron would be distressed, but not surprised, to see oil at $100 a barrel.
It often is heard that the energy situation can be markedly improved through vigorous conservation. Since 1973, many industries did just that, and indeed, much energy was saved. Certainly, more conservation can be done, but we can conserve our way out of an energy shortage just so far. New sources of petroleum and natural gas, and, perhaps more importantly, viable alternatives to petroleum are sorely needed. As for domestic sources of oil and gas, just try to explore and drill, and see how far you get before you are hopelessly enmeshed in civil and perhaps criminal legal proceedings.
ALTERNATIVES?
Well, where are we on alternatives to petroleum? Let us walk farther down the green brick road (can’t use yellow brick road without violating someone’s copyright!) we call memory lane. But first, let Green Baron restate what he heard in May 2002 at the National Press Club directly from Admiral David Truly, then NREL director. His forecast was that the alternatives to be pursued first will be fuel cells, particularly those powered by hydrogen (H2).
Green Baron was in an auditorium in the Executive Office Building in Washington, DC, when the foundation of the predecessor to NREL was announced in mid-1977. This was the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), whose first director, Denis Hayes, was introduced by then First Lady Rosalynn Carter. Together with then-Senator Gaylord Nelson (D, WI), Hayes had organized the first Earth Day, held in April 1970.
When the announcement ceremony was opened for comments from the floor, Amory Lovins, then British Representative of Friends of the Earth (FOE), addressed the subject of alternative synthetic fuels from coal (“synfuels”), declaring, “Synfuels is an idea whose time has passed.” During those days, Green Baron was actively looking into coal and synfuels, and writing occasional articles on the subject in Environmental Science & Technology, (ES&T), a publication of the American Chemical Society (ACS). Considerable research in several aspects of synfuels was going on at the time, but it is understandable that Lovins, as a leading environmental advocate, would oppose such activity. And, to be sure, synfuel plants did have their environmental problems at the time. After the steep oil price decline post-1982, however, one heard little or nothing about synfuels activity. Perhaps Green Baron will discuss this subject in a future issue of Muenchhausen.
During the 1980s and most of the 1990s, solar energy, too, did not elicit the interest that it had after the oil shocks of 1973—4 and 1979. Though it did progress substantially, the state of the art left much to be desired, and then the tax credit for installing solar energy systems lapsed. It has been reinstated, Green Baron believes, in the new energy bill that President Bush signed into law earlier this year. Moreover, interest in solar energy never disappeared, and its technology has progressed. In addition, Green Baron just read somewhere that solar energy installations will be required for public buildings in Israel (which makes eminent good sense, given the amount of sunlight available in that country.
To finish our walk down memory lane, we must, sadly, note that efforts to find and commercialize alternatives to petroleum- and natural gas-based fuels and chemicals have not progressed nearly as far as they should have. After prices of crude oil plunged during the mid-1980s and again during the late 1990s, interest in alternatives flagged, because alternatives could not compete in cost with petroleum and natural gas. Green Baron hopes that perhaps this picture will change, given the high prices of oil and gas, even before the calamity of Hurricane Katrina at the end of August. If history is any guide, however, we could see oil prices come down considerably again (in constant-dollar terms), and many projects in alternative energy-source development could be shelved. Perhaps, in such a case, Admiral Truly’s forecast about hydrogen-powered fuel cells might not come to pass in the foreseeable future.
Green Baron hopes his pessimism proves groundless. Permit him to suggest that we are paying dearly for the historical error of not moving decisively toward alternative energy sources even before the first oil shock of 1973. We have made this same mistake at least twice—first after 1973—4, then after 1979, given time for the shocks to wear off. If we make this same error another time, the cost will be even dearer. Many years ago, philosopher George Santayana warned, “Those who fail to heed the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them.” Green Baron heartily dislikes having to repeat lessons.
WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?
Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!
Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.
There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.
NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen.
AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS
By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
GREENBARON@CSI.COM
=================================================================
SEPTEMBER 7, 2005
=================================================================
WELCOME!
Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.
DOWN MEMORY LANE
Item on Drudgereport.com August 30, 2005: Governor Jeb Bush (R) of Florida warns of an impending gasoline shortage in his state. In this case, any such shortage would be the result of damage to oil refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast, caused by the recent passage of Hurricane Katrina. In addition, several oil-drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, where about 25% of U.S. oil supplies are produced, appear to have been badly damaged as of this writing.
This, however, is an acute crisis, and there should be some easing during September and October, assuming that no new storm devastates the Gulf Coast. Green Baron did look at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ on August 30, to see what other tropical depressions or storms might be brewing in the North Atlantic Ocean. There was a Tropical Depression Thirteen, but so far, it has not appeared to have gained strength or headway. Then again, Katrina seemed innocuous until it suddenly gained strength just east of the Bahamas, raked southern Florida, but then struck the Gulf Coast with full fury. Thus, one should temper one’s optimism when one reads a map of a tropical cyclone’s projected track.
But Green Baron digresses. With apologies, he will return to the current acute and continuing chronic energy crisis—if crisis there indeed be—and ask his readers to accompany him on a walk down memory lane, starting with the early 1970s.
In 1972, experts warned of a looming energy crisis and gasoline shortage, despite the United States seeming awash in petroleum products. Gasoline stations slowly began to be short of gasoline sometimes, starting about February 1973. With the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli war, October 6, 1973, the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced an embargo on sales and shipments of oil to the United States and any other countries that showed even the slightest inclination to aid Israel (especially the United States because then-President Nixon, essentially overruling the recommendations of his cabinet and staff, ordered shipments of arms and military equipment to the beleaguered Israelis).
During the autumn of 1973, President Nixon announced that the United States would make every effort to become energy-independent by 1980. The initiative even was dubbed “Project Independence 1980”. Although most energy experts said that achieving such independence in less than seven years was infeasible, even with a Manhattan Project-like effort—they likely were correct in that evaluation—few steps other than energy conservation, principally by industries to whom energy was a matter of dollars and cents were taken. Had serious efforts toward energy independence been initiated, perhaps the United States might have mitigated to some degree the effects of the energy crisis of 1979 (after the Shah of Iran was overthrown and an Islamist regime took power there), and the current problems now plaguing our nation.
Perhaps progressing superannuation is clouding Green Baron’s recollections, but let us continue our stroll down memory lane. Shortly after President Nixon’s pep speech about Project Independence 1980, perhaps in early December 1973, Green Baron recalls hearing news to the effect that member nations—especially Arab members—of OPEC would consider implementation of Project Independence to be “a most unfriendly act” (never mind that an embargo is an act of war under international law). He thinks he heard this news broadcast either on WAVA-FM, then an all-news radio station in Arlington, VA, or on a television news show. Whether or not Green Baron’s memory about this item is clear and correct, one thing is certain: Project Independence 1980 was never mentioned henceforth.
It should be mentioned here that Project Independence 1980 entailed not only finding and drilling for new sources of oil and gas, but also developing alternatives to petroleum. To be fair, there were efforts to use coal in an environmentally more benign manner, to try to make gaseous and liquid fuels from coal, and to increase work toward the use of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, biofuels, and the like). Under President Jimmy Carter, the National Solar Energy Laboratory was established in Boulder, CO. It still functions as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Green Baron will look into all of these alternatives in future issues of Muenchhausen.
Also, the energy crisis of 1973 spawned a new federal agency or bureaucracy, however one wishes to regard it. First came the Federal Energy Office, which evolved into the Federal Energy Administration, and finally, the cabinet-level Department of Energy (DOE), as we know it today. So one cannot, in fairness, say nothing was done. The question is, how much achieved anything, and how much was wheel spinning?
When Green Baron attended the World Energy Congress at Cobo Hall in Detroit, MI, in September 1974, he clearly heard then-President Gerald R. Ford (Nixon had left office in August 1974) give a keynote speech about “Project Interdependence” (italics Green Baron’s). Sitting in the audience, Green Baron thought of President Ford’s speech as a statement of abject surrender to OPEC. Nothing about any Project Independence was ever heard again.
Nothing about striving for energy independence was heard after the gasoline shortages of 1979, after the fall of the Shah of Iran. The United States drew no lesson even though oil and gasoline (and natural gas) prices were higher, in terms of constant 2005 dollars, than they are today. To match prices of, say, 1980—1982, crude oil would have to sell at about $90 per barrel. This could yet occur. Green Baron would be distressed, but not surprised, to see oil at $100 a barrel.
It often is heard that the energy situation can be markedly improved through vigorous conservation. Since 1973, many industries did just that, and indeed, much energy was saved. Certainly, more conservation can be done, but we can conserve our way out of an energy shortage just so far. New sources of petroleum and natural gas, and, perhaps more importantly, viable alternatives to petroleum are sorely needed. As for domestic sources of oil and gas, just try to explore and drill, and see how far you get before you are hopelessly enmeshed in civil and perhaps criminal legal proceedings.
ALTERNATIVES?
Well, where are we on alternatives to petroleum? Let us walk farther down the green brick road (can’t use yellow brick road without violating someone’s copyright!) we call memory lane. But first, let Green Baron restate what he heard in May 2002 at the National Press Club directly from Admiral David Truly, then NREL director. His forecast was that the alternatives to be pursued first will be fuel cells, particularly those powered by hydrogen (H2).
Green Baron was in an auditorium in the Executive Office Building in Washington, DC, when the foundation of the predecessor to NREL was announced in mid-1977. This was the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), whose first director, Denis Hayes, was introduced by then First Lady Rosalynn Carter. Together with then-Senator Gaylord Nelson (D, WI), Hayes had organized the first Earth Day, held in April 1970.
When the announcement ceremony was opened for comments from the floor, Amory Lovins, then British Representative of Friends of the Earth (FOE), addressed the subject of alternative synthetic fuels from coal (“synfuels”), declaring, “Synfuels is an idea whose time has passed.” During those days, Green Baron was actively looking into coal and synfuels, and writing occasional articles on the subject in Environmental Science & Technology, (ES&T), a publication of the American Chemical Society (ACS). Considerable research in several aspects of synfuels was going on at the time, but it is understandable that Lovins, as a leading environmental advocate, would oppose such activity. And, to be sure, synfuel plants did have their environmental problems at the time. After the steep oil price decline post-1982, however, one heard little or nothing about synfuels activity. Perhaps Green Baron will discuss this subject in a future issue of Muenchhausen.
During the 1980s and most of the 1990s, solar energy, too, did not elicit the interest that it had after the oil shocks of 1973—4 and 1979. Though it did progress substantially, the state of the art left much to be desired, and then the tax credit for installing solar energy systems lapsed. It has been reinstated, Green Baron believes, in the new energy bill that President Bush signed into law earlier this year. Moreover, interest in solar energy never disappeared, and its technology has progressed. In addition, Green Baron just read somewhere that solar energy installations will be required for public buildings in Israel (which makes eminent good sense, given the amount of sunlight available in that country.
To finish our walk down memory lane, we must, sadly, note that efforts to find and commercialize alternatives to petroleum- and natural gas-based fuels and chemicals have not progressed nearly as far as they should have. After prices of crude oil plunged during the mid-1980s and again during the late 1990s, interest in alternatives flagged, because alternatives could not compete in cost with petroleum and natural gas. Green Baron hopes that perhaps this picture will change, given the high prices of oil and gas, even before the calamity of Hurricane Katrina at the end of August. If history is any guide, however, we could see oil prices come down considerably again (in constant-dollar terms), and many projects in alternative energy-source development could be shelved. Perhaps, in such a case, Admiral Truly’s forecast about hydrogen-powered fuel cells might not come to pass in the foreseeable future.
Green Baron hopes his pessimism proves groundless. Permit him to suggest that we are paying dearly for the historical error of not moving decisively toward alternative energy sources even before the first oil shock of 1973. We have made this same mistake at least twice—first after 1973—4, then after 1979, given time for the shocks to wear off. If we make this same error another time, the cost will be even dearer. Many years ago, philosopher George Santayana warned, “Those who fail to heed the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them.” Green Baron heartily dislikes having to repeat lessons.
WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?
Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!
Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.
There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.
NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen.
Labels: Fuel shortages, past delays in alternatives to oil; pessimism
posted by Green_Baron00 @ 9:06 PM
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