MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
JULY 3, 2007
===============================================================

WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

COERCIVE USE OF ENERGY REVISITED

OK, let's see, where were we? Ah, yes, The Green Baron (TGB) remembers, we were discussing (or perhaps railing about?) coercive use of energy in our last "issues" of Muenchhausen.

We shall revisit the Black Sea security conference held June 21 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington, DC) one more time. Filip Bokov, Chief-of-Cabinet to the Prime Minister of Bulgaria acknowledged that his country and neighboring Romania are indeed under Russia's thumb when it comes to energy, much of it in the form of natural gas. "But what can we do? We have to heat our homes in winter," he observed.

There was a time when Bulgaria was a net exporter of energy, principally in the form of electricity. Bulgaria's Kozloduy nuclear power station, located on the south bank of the Danube River, supplied electricity in excess of Bulgaria's needs, thereby allowing Bulgaria to be an exporter of power. Bokov and others from Bulgaria, however, reminded the conference that the Kozloduy plant does not meet the technical and safety standards mandated by the European Union (EU), of which Bulgaria recently became a member. As a condition of EU membership, Bulgaria must shut Kozloduy down. It should be noted that Kozloduy had been constructed according to the same specification as those of Ignalina in Lithuania and the notorious Chernobyl', now in Ukraine.

The results of this closure mandate will render Bulgaria (and Romania, to be sure) a major importer of energy, at least for the near future, and subject to Russia's coercive use of energy, given that Bulgaria's gas comes almost entirely from Russia. Can Bulgaria reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas? The difficulties involved are immense. Imagine, for example, the cost of rebuilding the Kozloduy plant according to EU technical and safety specifications; this would be essentially an overhaul from the ground up. The expense would be huge, to understate the case. Then there is talk of bringing gas and oil to Bulgaria from Azerbaijan, with a pipeline under the Black Sea. Not only would its high cost be problematical (to say the least), but with such a pipeline, especially for crude oil, there always is the potential for a leak and resulting large-scale pollution.

TGB is thinking that perhaps with EU help and some creative financing, if that could be effected, revamping Kozloduy to EU specifications might be a better way to go in the long run. Also, a nuclear plant emits little, if any "greenhouse" gas to the atmosphere.

As for a pipeline or pipelines under the Black Sea--Well, TGB will speak to pollution that would compound not only the existing human felony, but that which nature left in that body of water.

A PARTIAL BREAKAWAY

Surprising though it may seem, the Republic of Estonia, a former Soviet Union (FSU) nation, has been able to wean itself partly from dependence on foreign sources of fuel, especially Russian and Middle Eastern. Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves told TGB that about 13% of Estonia's energy needs are supplied by Russia in the form of natural gas, and, yes, the Russians do attempt some coercion on that country. President Ilves was speaking at the CSIS seminar
mentioned above.
This Russian pressure is not as heavy on Estonia as it is on its Baltic neighbors (Latvia and Lithuania). First of all, Estonia is deriving a considerable amount of electric energy from wind installations. Estonia fronts on the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland, where winds can be quite strong all year 'round, so the large-scale use of wind energy is fast becoming economically viable there. This is especially true around the northwest of Estonia, where several islands, known as Saaremaa, jut out into the Baltic Sea.

In addition, Estonia purchases some electric power from the Ignalina Nuclear Power Station in Lithuania, which was Soviet-built. However, Estonia and its two Baltic neighbors have become members of the EU (TGB was at the celebrations at the National Press Club, Washington, DC). Like Kozloduy in Bulgaria, Ignalina does not meet EU standards for safety and technology, and, as President Ilves explained it, must be shut down by 2009. That will leave all the Baltic countries in an energy bind; however, President Ilves said that Estonia, together with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, plan to pool resources to revamp Ignalina so that it will meet EU standards--still a monumental and costly undertaking.

In addition, Estonia does have an ace in the hole that its neighbors lack--rich deposits of oil shale. President Ilves, however, acknowledged that extracting oil from shale does present considerable air, water, and land pollution problems. In a forthcoming issue, TGB should offer a primer on oil shale and its beneficiation. For now, suffice it to say that the "oil" is not the type of oil one pumps from wells, and the "shale" is not true shale.

WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.

MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
JUNE 26, 2007
===============================================================

WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

"COERCIVE USE" OF ENERGY

Please see the Muenchhausen posting of June 21, 2007 (actually officially posted June 24). The Green Baron (TGB) continues with his narrative (some might call it a diatribe).

Keith Smith of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington, DC) used the phrase, "coercive use" of energy in discussing Russia's current relations with the European Union (EU). "Until January 1, 2006, the EU saw Russia as a reliable source of energy," said Smith at CSIS's conference on Black Sea Security (1), which took place June 21. "Many still believe this myth, which has been broken since January 1, 2006," Smith added. In fact, Russia used energy for political coercion during the 1990s, "to suppress Baltic states' independence; same for Ukraine," he observed.

The EU, however, has not been entirely blameless. One problem: "The EU has no energy strategy. The big EU members [e.g., France and Germany] don't want to give up their power or that of their companies," said Smith.

Actually, Russia has not so much oil as it has natural gas, especially from Central Asia, but Russia monopolizes the pipelines, Smith explained (although Russia's oil reserves nevertheless are immense). The two main companies of the Russian oligopoly are Rosneft and Gazprom. They are in a position to profit immensely, particularly from gas. For instance, Gazprom buys gas from Turkmenistan for about $70/million cu. m. Add to that gas transportation costs of $20/million cu. m. The gas is sold to Europe for perhaps $150/million cu. m. Gross profit for Gazprom is about $60/million cu. m. Not bad, eh?

Add to all of the above a wee bit of conflict of interest somewhere. After Gerhard Schroeder left the Chancellorship of the Federal Republic of Germany, he accepted a major position with Gazprom as an advisor, on the personal invitation of President Vladimir' Putin of Russia. These men are now planning a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to carry fuel supplies to Europe (whether that would be oil or gas is not specified). This pipeline would bypass Poland; TGB leaves it to Muenchhausen's readers to assess the geopolitical implications of such a project. The cost could be at least $18 billion. TGB's query: The Baltic Sea is an environmentally sensitive body of water, already quite degraded in some spots. What adverse effects would a pipeline mishap have on the Baltic Sea, particularly if the pipeline is carrying crude oil?

THE "KUMBAYA" FACTOR

If the EU has any thought about facing Russia down concerning Russia's energy oligopoly and politically coercive use of energy, the EU "has one arm tied behind its back," as Smith put it. He suggests that the EU has an ethical "Lutheran-Scandinavian approach" to negotiations, which Russia does not, and never has shared. This approach assumes above-board, transparent negotiations on a level playing field, and a friendly relation among the parties. TGB calls it "the 'kumbaya' factor" (2). He would love to see all negotiations based on the "kumbaya factor", and who knows--perhaps between now and a googolplex [10(e+googol)] of years, this may become standard political and business practice (1 googol = 10[e+100]).

According to Smith, "natural gas is the fuel of the future." TGB says that Smith simply confirms what TGB has been saying (while gnashing his teeth) all these years, which is that really, there is no known alternative to most intents and purposes. Smith explained why Russia's quasi-imperial policy is harmful to that country in the long run. TGB counters by quoting John Maynard Keynes: "In the long run, we are all dead"; Russian policymakers are mostly unconcerned with the long run when it comes to energy.

More about the Black Sea and some other topics to follow soon.

References:

1. Conference, The Role of the Black Sea in the Transatlantic Security Agenda. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, June 21, 2007.

2. "Kumbaya". Song written during 1930s by Rev. Martin V. Frey (1913--1992), but made popular during 1960s by the folk-singing group Peter, Paul, and Mary.

WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.

MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
JUNE 24, 2007
===============================================================
WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

"MARE NOSTRUM"

If you ever look at a map of the old Roman Empire (the map modernized to show actual landmasses, coastlines, and so on, to be sure), you will see the Mediterranean Sea labeled "Mare Nostrum" ("Our Sea"). The Russian Federation stood accused of seeking essentially the same status for the Black Sea, in the words and implications by several speakers at a conference, The Role of the Black Sea In the Transatlantic Security Agenda, presented by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington, DC).

A bit of background on that: Catherine the Great (Empress of Russia from 1762 to 1796) conquered much of what is now the northern and western shores of the Black Sea from the Ottoman Empire during her reign. In a sense, with the exception of the north coast of Turkey, the Black Sea essentially became a Russian Mare Nostrum.

Then, after the close of World War II, until 1989-1991, the nations of Romania and Bulgaria became Soviet satellites, and what is now the Republic of Georgia was a Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) of the Soviet Union (USSR). Although Romania and Bulgaria regained their full sovereignty, and Georgia and Ukraine broke from the USSR and became independent, the government of what is now the Russian Federation never fully "swallowed" those bitter pills. The littoral of the Black Sea thus came under the diverse control of several nations. Several speakers at the CSIS conference, held June 21, accused Russia of seeking to remake the Black Sea into its Mare Nostrum by either re-annexing nations such as Ukraine and Georgia and bringing Romania and Bulgaria back under her heel, or at least by reestablishing a virtual monopoly of influence over those nations (Turkey excepted, to be sure).

ZERO-SUM GAME SYNDROME

"Russia still follows a zero-sum game," observed Corneliu Dobritoiu, Head of the Romanian Defense Ministry's Department of Policy and Planning. "This is an unhappy legacy of the old USSR. Security is the major issue [even more important than solving energy and environment problems], he added. In other words, if another country with whom Russia deals gains a benefit of any kind, Russia perforce must lose in a measure equal to the other's nation's perceived gain--hence a sum of zero.

During The Green Baron's (TGB's) childhood and adolescent years his mother, herself of Russian birth (originally from St. Petersburg) steeped him in Russian history, language, literature, and culture. Thus, upon hearing Dobritoiu's description of Russia's zero-sum game syndrome, all TGB could do was ask himself silently, "So what else is new?" TGB's mother had explained that essentially, a degree of paranoia always has been a component of Russian culture at least since the first Tatar invasion of Russia from Central Asia during the mid-13th century. Moreover, Russia also had been attacked by enemies from the west, too, such as the Teutonic Knights and the Swedes (during the early 19th century, Russia defeated the Swedes decisively, once and for all, and received Finland and Estonia among the spoils of war).

It should not be surprising that a nation invaded from all sides by various powers, from Tatars to Germanic peoples, and to Polish, Turkish, and British armies during its past should become a bit paranoid. This would go far toward explaining why the Russian authorities seek essential monopoly over energy and mineral resources, and why the zero-sum game syndrome should be such an integral part of the Russian Volksgeist.

Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army War College agreed with Dobritoiu about Russia's zero-sum game syndrome. He offered zero-sum as a partial explanation for Russia's wanting exclusive ownership of its resources and control of pipelines that carry oil and gas to the rest of Europe. "The Russians want to split the European Union (EU)," said Blank. "The 'thrill' of empire drives Russian politics." To this, TGB adds that Jenghiz Khan (1162-1227), a notorious invader of Russia and Europe, had the following statement ascribed to him: "A man's greatest satisfaction comes from conquering another nation and depriving its people of their lives and property." Perhaps this saying of Jenghiz Khan, if indeed he did say it, to some measure implanted itself in the Russian culture. This might explain partly why "Russia wants exclusive influence in Eastern and Central Europe," amd could gain this influence by means of energy supply blackmail.

Concerning the Black Sea, Blank conflict resolution in that region implies democratization, "which is the antithesis of Russian ways." TGB's mother reminded TGB many years ago that indeed, the concepts of democracy and individual liberty almost never were a part of Russian culture. The only time that some semblance of parliamentary democracy held any sway on Russia was in the summer of 1917, under the leadership of Alexander Kerenskiy, which was quickly snuffed out by the Bol'shevik Revolution (also aided and abetted by Imperial Germany) in November 1917 (October by the Russian calendar).

ALTERNATIVES TO OIL AND GAS?

Currently, are there any economically viable alternatives to oil and gas that can wean Europe (and the United States, for that matter) from its nearly abject dependence on these fuels? TGB knows of none, essentially. Well, what about coal, shale, and nuclear sources, for example? At this time, coal and shale are perceived among broad sectors of the European and American publics as environmentally unacceptable, and nuclear still appears to be politically unpalatable.

TGB will discuss more about oil, gas, and the Black Sea's environment and conflicts in issues of Muenchhausen to appear in the near future.

WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.