MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
AUGUST 9, 2007
===============================================================

WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMICS? ENVIRONMENT VS. ECONOMICS?

During his career (1973-1994) with the magazine/journal Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T), and even thereafter, The Green Baron (TGB) often heard environmental experts and, to be sure, advocates, maintain that environmental progress and economic growth could be compatible or made compatible. Fain would TGB believe that to be true, and perhaps it may be, if one considers the long run. However, to quote the late economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), "In the long run, we are all dead." About which, some musings:


One has but to look at the recent economy vs. environment record of the People's Republic of China (PRC). For instance, this June, China rejected caps on greenhouse gas emissions as "threat to economic growth" (1). Ma Kai, Minister of China's National Development and Reform Commission, a cabinet-level agency, explained that it "is neither fair nor acceptable to us to impose too early, too abruptly, or too bluntly measures which one would ask of developed countries."


The Chinese government did list a series of environmental goals it seeks to achieve by 2010, from raising public awareness about conservation to accelerating research and development. But it will take few or no initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, at least in the near future. Bear in mind that China currently is exempt from provisions of the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997 (which, to be fair, the United States also refused to ratify. However, numerous US governmental and private interests are taking voluntary measures to reduce such emissions, and some individual states are mandating reductions.)


Chinese officials make quite clear that China will not even consider environmental measures not in its interest, because these would interfere with China's efforts to "modernize." Chinese officials frequently note that China has about 20% of the world's population, but produces only 15% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. By contrast, they add, the US has 5% of the world's population, but generates 25% of the world's CO2 output. TGB will say this for those Chinese officials: They are not mincing any words!

ECONOMIC GAIN WITHOUT FREEDOM

It often is said that a large degree of individual freedom is a sine qua non for the furtherance of economic gain and prosperity. The government of the People's Republic of China has demonstrated conclusively that this need not be the case (2). Indeed, according to James Mann, author-in-residence at The Johns Hopkins University, a regime is quite able to have economic prosperity while effectively suppressing organized opposition and not even bothering to hold fair, meaningful elections. Mann suggests that China's political-economic model offers hope not only to isolated dictatorships such as Syria, Myanmar (Burma), or Zimbabwe, but also to leaders of countries such as Venezuela and Cuba.

What, one might ask, has this to do with environmental protection and improvement, sustained development, and such like? It becomes clear that governments such as that of China can crush environmental opposition to breakneck industrial development and megaprojects such as dams; the Three Gorges Dam on the Yang-tze River is a case in point. It has just been reported that the Yang-tze River dolphin seems to have been driven to extinction almost solely through human activity.

REFERENCES:

1. Fan, M. "China Outlines Modest Environmental Goals". The Washington Post, June 5, 2007, p. A14.

2. Mann, J. "A Shining Model of Wealth without Liberty". The Washington Post, May 20, 2007, p. B1.


WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.

MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
JULY 23, 2007
===============================================================

WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

WHEN ALL'S SAID AND DONE, IT'S WATER


For all those who want a glimpse of what Arab nations' economies might be like in the near and intermediate future, The Green Baron (TGB) recommends The Arab Economies in a Changing World, by Marcus Noland and Howard Pack (1). Noland and Pack had distinguished careers in government, non-governmental organization (NGOs) and academia. As this "blog" is being written, they are senior fellow and visiting fellow at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE, Washington, DC).


Noland and Howard provide many statistical tables that accurately reflect past, present, and projected future economic conditions in the Arab world. TGB had the honor of being invited to the seminar, held at PIIE in June 2007, at which the book was introduced and where Noland and Pack discussed the economic situation in the Arab world and future prospects. They then had to field probing questions from a panel which included C. Fred Bergsten, executive director of PIIE and other distinguished economists, as well as the audience.

Now, if TGB may take the liberty to add his own comment: Some Arab countries are blessed with oil and gas; others, however, are not. Therefore, some are economic powerhouses; others, however, are not. They do have several features in common, however. Almost all are despotisms of varying degrees. Some, such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan, might be characterized as "enlightened" or "benevolent" despotisms; please forgive TGB's references to the Austro-Hungarian Empire of Maria Theresa and Franz Josef. Others, in TGB's view are, to use a German expression, "unter allen Kritik".

Another commonality is varying degrees of governmental corruption. But perhaps the factor that binds them all is the paucity of potable and agricultural water. Nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar might possess great oil wealth, but petroleum, when ingested, raises Cain with animal and plant metabolism. No Arab nation, with the possible exceptions of Syria and Iraq, is rich in surface fresh water supply. Moreover, although there are aquifers, many are fully subscribed. It has been remarked to TGB and others that one of the major factors in the next Middle East war--and it will require divine miracle to stave it off--will be the availability and accessibility of fresh water. Take a good look at a map of the Middle East, and you see why TGB makes the comments he does.

REFERENCES:

1. Noland, M.; Pack, H. The Arab Economies in a Changing World. Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, 2007, p. 137.

AND SPEAKING OF DESPOTISM. . .

In a future issue of Muenchhausen, TGB will try to expound his own thoughts of why despotism is essentially the normal manifestation of the human condition with regard to governance, and why the United States, probably the most free country in the world, despite its many warts, appears as a low-probability phenomenon over the long-term course of history. Despotisms, incidentally, normally exact a huge environmental toll.

WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.

MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
JULY 16, 2007
===============================================================

WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

"DESIGNED BY CONSENSUS"

Portugal has assumed the presidency of the European Union (EU). "One of my country's highest priorities will be the effort to curb [human activity-caused] global warming," Portuguese Ambassador João de Vallera told a press conference at the National Press Club (Washington, DC) July 11. The Green Baron (TGB) could not resist bringing up the point that two EU heavyweights--President Vaclav Klaus of Czech Republic and Former Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz of Poland--"rather pointedly dissented against the theory of global warming." De Vallera reminded TGB that the EU has decided by firm consensus that global warming is an established, irrefutable fact, and proceed in its efforts and policies according to this consensus. To be sure, he did add that Klaus and Balcerowicz "certainly are entitled to their views," but those views emphatically do not reflect the EU's position.



















Ambassador de Vallera: Global warming a top priority

When TGB said, "Czech President Havel and Former Finance Minister Balcerowicz 'rather pointedly dissented against the theory of global warming,'" he grossly understated the quotations. Actually, Havel and Balcerowicz called the (human-caused) global warming theory "a fraud"--Balcerowicz said this personally to TGB at a Cato Institute seminar earlier this year. Perhaps their terms were a bit strong, but there is a whole school of highly credentialed climate scientists who sharply disagree with the global warming theory and forecasts. Among them are Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia, Richard S. Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Sallie Balliunas of Harvard University and the Smithsonian Astronomical Observatory. These and their dissenting colleagues hold doctorates in related fields and have published much scientific literature.








Czech President Klaus: Called global warming a "fraud"

Balcerowicz: Said the word "fraud" to TGB

One can check through Google® and other Web sites to find a whole army of dissenters, as well as supporters of global warming forecasts. The playing field, however, is not level; many powerful politicians and media commentators worldwide line up with supporters of the hypothesis of severe human-caused global warming to come. Indeed, many supporters characterize dissenters as "deniers"; some supporters have even advocated legally suppressing "deniers'" publications and access to media.

One item that nearly flabbergasted TGB, however, was the conversion of a supporter to a "denier", a "defection," so to speak. This is all the more astonishing because the "defector" also is a French Socialist, from whose ranks such a defection normally would not be expected. The story appeared in Canada's National Post: http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=2f4cc62e-5b0d-4b59-8705-fc28f14da388

Nevertheless, global warming caused by human activity is established and validated through consensus (including many prominent scientists, to be sure). TGB's son once remarked, "A camel is a horse designed according to consensus."















Horses by consensus


"Where do you stand on global warming, Green Baron?", he often is asked, sometimes rather pointedly. TGB buys a minority of the shares in this venture, subscribing more to the hypothesis that natural terrestrial and solar radiation factors exert far more influence on Earth's climatic fluctuations.

WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, the Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.

MUENCHHAUSEN

AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,
RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY,
AND RELATED TOPICS

By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC.
BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON@VERIZON.NET

FOR COMMENTS: GREEN_BARON99.MUENCHHAUSEN@BLOGGER.COM

===============================================================
JULY 11, 2007
===============================================================

WELCOME!

The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.

The Green Baron also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above or to Green_Baron99.muenchhausen@blogger.com.

OIL SHALE: A BRIEF PRIMER

On June 27, 2007, Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves explained to The Green Baron (TGB) how his country was able to pare its dependence on foreign imports of hydrocarbon fuels to about 13% of its needs: Among other projects, Estonia extracts oil from shale deposits in that nation, and also has built windmill complexes along its Baltic Sea shore. Ilves acknowledged to TGB, however, that beneficiating oil shale does carry a heavy environmental impact. He spoke at a Baltic Nations conference held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington, DC).

Panoramic view of a room-and-pillar oil shale mine in northeastern Estonia. The thickness of the mined oil shale (kukersite) is about 2.5 meters. Oil shale is also mined by open pit at several nearby localities.

Photo taken in 2005 courtesy of Heikki Bauert, Tallinn, Estonia

From: http://www.aapg.org/explorer/divisions/2006/05emd.cfm

It stands to reason, therefore, that there are numerous Estonian publications that describe and explain Estonia's industrial activities with oil shale and shale oil (there is a difference, which TGB will discuss later). For instance, visit the site: http://www.kirj.ee/oilshale/ed-page5.html. It explains quite clearly how Estonia was able to use oil shale and its products for several decades to meet a large part of its energy needs. Enno Reinsalu tells the story with graphics. Also visit: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/feb07/4885, an IEEE Spectrum article that discusses the modernization of the Estonian oil shale industry and usage.

Now, for the difference between oil shale and shale oil. Oil shale is the rock in which the oil is contained. You can burn this rock directly at a high cost in environmental pollution. Estonian power generators have been doing this since the 1920s, but are cleaning up their act now (they must, under EU rules, even with some deadline deferrals). TGB has seen small samples of this rock ignited. They burned hot and smelled bad.

Also, "oil shale" is a misnomer. The "shale" is not really shale, but marl, whose grains are finer than those of shale but coarser than those of limestone. The "oil" is by no means oil as we know it in the form of crude petroleum; it is, rather, a hard, waxy substance, called kerogen, that suffuses the rock.

Various people and groups have tried to find economical means of extracting "oil" (in quotes deliberately) from shale since at least the 1920s. TGB has seen old photos of structures in the shale country of northwestern Colorado, dating back to perhaps the 1930s and 1940s. TGB himself visited at least one oil shale company's headquarters in Denver in 1974. Here is essentially what he was told then; bear in mind that much has evolved since the 1970s.

The "shale" must either be brought to the land surface by mining, or originally processed in situ. In a nutshell, in any case, to extract the hydrocarbons, the rock must be processed at perhaps 900 degrees F (about 482 degrees C). This turns the kerogen to gas, which next is condensed, and here lieth the rub. The folks in Denver and other experts told TGB that the liquefied kerogen is a non-Newtonian fluid. That means it does not obey the action-equal, opposite reaction law of Isaac Newton, and thus cannot be moved by a pump. Another type of feed, gravity, for instance, must be used to bring the liquefied kerogen to where it is further processed. After processing is completed and unwanted impurities are removed, the resulting "crude" is "shale oil".

Shale oil then can be cracked and fractionated into many of the familiar petroleum products, such as gasoline. Compared with current costs of deriving products from conventional petroleum, the cost of so beneficiating oil shale are, essentially, prohibitive. Given the current state of world affairs, however, the cost situation could change. Indeed, given petroleum uncertainties, Shell Oil is piloting an in-the-ground process to retort the shale (heat in absence of air) in the Piceance Creek deposit. Input energy costs and environmental pollution effects are in the process of being evaluated.

Photo courtesy of Shell Oil

Array of heater wells and producer wells with pumping jacks at the Shell Oil Mahogany Project site in the Piceance Creek Basin, Colorado.

From: http://www.aapg.org/explorer/divisions/2006/05emd.cfm

The United States probably is the Saudi Arabia of oil shale. The largest rich deposit of oil shale, the Green River Formation, is located in the vicinity of Rifle, Colorado, in the northwest of that state. The Piceance Creek (pronounced pee-ANCE) runs through this formation, part of which intends into Wyoming and Utah. TGB has heard that this oil shale's Fisher Assay value could be as high as 80.

Wait a minute, Green Baron! What the blazes is Fisher Assay? To define it, much oversimplified, no doubt, we call it an analytical assessment of how many gallons of "oil" can be obtained per ton of rock processed. The Fisher Assay for different oil shales worldwide can easily be found these days via the various search engines.

Well, Green Baron, if the USA has this rich oil shale deposit, why don't we use it to make a serious dent in our dependence on imported oil and gas? Well, there are several reasons. Its higher cost, compared with petroleum, even at current prices, is mentioned just for openers. Then, once the kerogen is extracted, the rock mine tailings almost double in size, thereby presenting a massive solid waste problem. This waste is said to be rich in sodium ore, which is a marketable item, and could mitigate the cost of waste processing with a plant credit for the value of the minerals sold.

Here, then, is another problem. The rail, road, and pipeline infrastructure to move the hydrocarbons and the solids in the northwestern Colorado region has been rudimentary, at best. To install such infrastructure would entail huge capital costs, compounded by the fact that the Green River Formation is located in rugged Rocky Mountain country. Adding to capital and operating costs would be minimizing the normally heavy environmental impact that would be brought about by oil shale beneficiation, especially in this essentially nearly pristine wilderness area.

The Estonian energy interests, until now, have been paying the environmental costs of shale mining and use, which were relatively low during times of Soviet domination and in the early days of independence. They are now to incur the costs of meeting EU environmental standards, and must change their approaches, which they are doing. The World Wide Web contains much information about the Estonian shale industry; in fact, Estonia has an Oil Shale Academy under its Academy of Sciences.

Actually, although the USA is a Saudi Arabia of oil shale, perhaps Brazil is perhaps the Iraq-Iran of oil shale. Significant amounts of shale also are to found in Jordan, Italy, Canada, and Congo-Kinshasa.

WHAT IS BOOTSTRAP PRESS?

Bootstrap Press is a nonprofit organization founded in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., to promote the development and management of technology and businesses based on renewable resources. We also encourage the preservation of our Earth's natural habitats and its plant and animal species. So do a lot of other organizations, and more power to them for doing so!

Bootstrap Press is different because its members believe that the development of renewable resources and the preservation of habitats and species are receiving far more lip service than the financial and technical support needed to achieve these goals. We also think they will continue to be subjects of more talk than action until someone can show how renewable resources and the diversity of biological species can be the basis for potentially profitable businesses as well as a matter of ethics. Bootstrap Press intends to provide a forum for the discussion of how to build up such business, and of related topics.

There's one more thing we should mention about Muenchhausen and Bootstrap Press. We try to present only the scientific and technical facts that are correct to the best of our knowledge, belief, and good faith. It is up to Muenchhausen's readers to draw their own conclusions and make their own judgments.

NOTE: The mention of a product or service in Muenchhausen is in no way to be regarded as an endorsement of that product or service by Muenchhausen, Bootstrap Press, The Green Baron, or any other contributor to Muenchhausen. Also, the views expressed in Muenchhausen are The Green Baron’s own, and are based on the best of his knowledge, belief, and good faith.