MUENCHHAUSEN, Dec. 19, 2008
MUENCHHAUSEN
AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY, AND RELATED TOPICS
By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC., BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON(at)VERIZON.NET
DECEMBER 19, 2008
WELCOME!
The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.The Green Baron (TGB) also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above.
HOLIDAY GREETINGS
To all who might read Muenchhausen, TGB expresses his best wishes for a most Joyous Holiday Season 2008 and Happy and Prosperous New Year 2009.
SCIENCE DIPLOMACY
"The main interest of science diplomacy is that it be undertaken for diplomatic and political reasons," Norman Neureiter, director of science, technology, and security policy, for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, Washington, DC) told a forum held Dec. 15 at the Embassy of Austria (Washington, DC). He added, "I want to see more of that--AAAS now has a center for science diplomacy. One [salient] example of science diplomacy in the past was the nuclear standoff during the Cold war. Another was part of the process of opening communications and relations with China" (1).
Neureiter: Spearheading science diplomacy
TGB had the honor of attending that Austrian Embassy forum. As readers of Muenchhausen will see, TGB often likes to use this blog to muse on various topics, and this is one of them. He certainly agrees with Neureiter that a much greater emphasis on science diplomacy is highly necessary. TGB needs to ask, however, how one exercises science diplomacy, based on cold, hard fact, with national leaders and politicians whose political, ideological, or religious makeup makes them not want to be confused or distracted by facts? How does one deal with entrenched bureaucracies or interests which whose aims and ambitions scientific facts might clash?
A note about the forum itself: There actually was little in the way of lecture. Most of the forum consisted of audience participation and discussion, so many ideas could be kicked around. The moderator was Warren Leary, a former science writer for The New York Times, and currently associated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria). The organizer was Philipp Marxgut, Science Attaché at the Austrian Embassy.
Perhaps another recent example of science diplomacy was a call by Klaus Scharioth, Ambassador of Germany to the United States, for an "energy revolution." He was opening a German-US project that his government calls a "trans-Atlantic bridge" to encourage public and private cooperation toward producing cleaner power. Despite current economic challenges, "it is critical that we take the long view on energy and climate change. We need an energy revolution that involves the public and private sectors and decision makers at all levels. Also, we need more cooperation" (2).
A FAR CRY FROM JULY 2008
Remember July 2008, when the price of crude oil reached about $147 a barrel, a record high even after inflation is taken into account? Well, economic history is rife with examples of price bubbles bursting. In Japan, for instance, during the 1990s, highly inflated real estate prices came tumbling down. In the US, near the turn of the century, we witnessed the "dot.com" stock price crash. Currently, we have seen a deflation in real estate and home prices; TGB does not intend to discuss possible causes here; that would take up several issues of Muenchhausen. Indeed, books can and will be written on this topic. And since July, we have seen the world price of benchmark crude oil decline from $147 all the way down below $40 a barrel. A recent closing price in New York was $40.06 a barrel (3).
TGB reads that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut production by 2.2 million barrels a day (bpd), effective Jan. 1, 2009, and that this cut is in addition to previous cuts, for a grand total of perhaps as much as 4 million bpd. Yet expected large price increases oil on futures so far have failed to materialize. Yes, there were some "blips", but they did not appear to hold. On Dec. 19, TGB heard on radio news that prices of crude have "stabilized," but "stabilized" was not defined numerically.
TGB and many others recall that in the past, oil crunches motivated consumers to conserve, as well as searches for fuels to compete with petroleum products. As soon as prices declined, however, research efforts were put on hold or abandoned and consumers went back to their old "gas guzzler" habits. In a sense--by your leave, TGB will be a bit vulgar--oil consumers habits remind him of drug addicts whose habits became so expensive and dangerous that they decided to go for rehabilitation. This alarmed the drug dealers and kingpins, who would then lower their "merchandise" prices to tempt the addicts to go back to their habits. These dealers and kingpins also had other methods of persuasion, but those will not be discussed here.
To get back to the current sharp oil price "bust": TGB was fully expecting a repeat of past consumption habits. However, he is hoping for a pleasant surprise this time: for example, he reads that motorists have become wary and seem to be cutting down on their fuel use despite substantially lower "gas" prices. In addition, there now have begun numerous earnestly organized efforts to find viable alternatives to petroleum and ways to use them to run a developed nation's economy. The specter or climate change is yet another factor motivating reductions in consumption of fossil fuels. And, to be sure, the current and expected near-term states of the economy worldwide play a central role.
Perhaps to emphasize the point a bit more, here is a quote: The EIA also expects that reliance on oil will drop significantly between now and 2030: The EIA also expects that reliance on oil will drop significantly between now and 2030. The United States imported 58 percent of oil consumed in 2007 and is expected to import 41 percent in 2030 (4). This is an estimate by Howard Gruenspecht, acting administrator of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), who expects a major drop in dependence on imported oil in the fulness of time.
It is not normally TGB's practice to engage in Schadenfreude, perhaps best loosely defined as delighting in someone else's misery or setback. But in this case he is hard put to stop himself from thinking that some difficulty for OPEC countries, the Russian Federation, and other such could not happen to more deserving people for the time being.
REFERENCES:
1. Neureiter, N. Presentation at Embassy of Austria, Washington, DC, Dec. 15, 2008.
2. Morrison, J. "Bridge to Somewhere". Washington Times, Dec. 17, 2008, p. A12.
3. Cattaneo, C. Financial Post, Dec. 17, 2008. http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1085922
4. LoBianco, T. "Rise in U.S. demand for oil seen as near nil". Washington Times, Dec. 18, 2008, p. A8.
Posted By Green_Baron00 to Muenchhausen at 12/19/2008 03:31:00 PM
AN ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER ABOUT ENVIRONMENT,RENEWABLE RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY, AND RELATED TOPICS
By BOOTSTRAP PRESS, INC., BETHESDA, MD
JJGREENBARON(at)VERIZON.NET
DECEMBER 19, 2008
WELCOME!
The Green Baron welcomes one and all who take the time to read Muenchhausen. He aims to “tell it like it is” as much as possible, and avoid advocacy and ideological positions. There are enough of those to go around in other publications.The Green Baron (TGB) also welcomes comments from anyone who may read Muenchhausen. Please send comments to the e-mail address above.
HOLIDAY GREETINGS
To all who might read Muenchhausen, TGB expresses his best wishes for a most Joyous Holiday Season 2008 and Happy and Prosperous New Year 2009.
SCIENCE DIPLOMACY
"The main interest of science diplomacy is that it be undertaken for diplomatic and political reasons," Norman Neureiter, director of science, technology, and security policy, for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, Washington, DC) told a forum held Dec. 15 at the Embassy of Austria (Washington, DC). He added, "I want to see more of that--AAAS now has a center for science diplomacy. One [salient] example of science diplomacy in the past was the nuclear standoff during the Cold war. Another was part of the process of opening communications and relations with China" (1).
Neureiter: Spearheading science diplomacy
TGB had the honor of attending that Austrian Embassy forum. As readers of Muenchhausen will see, TGB often likes to use this blog to muse on various topics, and this is one of them. He certainly agrees with Neureiter that a much greater emphasis on science diplomacy is highly necessary. TGB needs to ask, however, how one exercises science diplomacy, based on cold, hard fact, with national leaders and politicians whose political, ideological, or religious makeup makes them not want to be confused or distracted by facts? How does one deal with entrenched bureaucracies or interests which whose aims and ambitions scientific facts might clash?
A note about the forum itself: There actually was little in the way of lecture. Most of the forum consisted of audience participation and discussion, so many ideas could be kicked around. The moderator was Warren Leary, a former science writer for The New York Times, and currently associated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria). The organizer was Philipp Marxgut, Science Attaché at the Austrian Embassy.
Perhaps another recent example of science diplomacy was a call by Klaus Scharioth, Ambassador of Germany to the United States, for an "energy revolution." He was opening a German-US project that his government calls a "trans-Atlantic bridge" to encourage public and private cooperation toward producing cleaner power. Despite current economic challenges, "it is critical that we take the long view on energy and climate change. We need an energy revolution that involves the public and private sectors and decision makers at all levels. Also, we need more cooperation" (2).
A FAR CRY FROM JULY 2008
Remember July 2008, when the price of crude oil reached about $147 a barrel, a record high even after inflation is taken into account? Well, economic history is rife with examples of price bubbles bursting. In Japan, for instance, during the 1990s, highly inflated real estate prices came tumbling down. In the US, near the turn of the century, we witnessed the "dot.com" stock price crash. Currently, we have seen a deflation in real estate and home prices; TGB does not intend to discuss possible causes here; that would take up several issues of Muenchhausen. Indeed, books can and will be written on this topic. And since July, we have seen the world price of benchmark crude oil decline from $147 all the way down below $40 a barrel. A recent closing price in New York was $40.06 a barrel (3).
TGB reads that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut production by 2.2 million barrels a day (bpd), effective Jan. 1, 2009, and that this cut is in addition to previous cuts, for a grand total of perhaps as much as 4 million bpd. Yet expected large price increases oil on futures so far have failed to materialize. Yes, there were some "blips", but they did not appear to hold. On Dec. 19, TGB heard on radio news that prices of crude have "stabilized," but "stabilized" was not defined numerically.
TGB and many others recall that in the past, oil crunches motivated consumers to conserve, as well as searches for fuels to compete with petroleum products. As soon as prices declined, however, research efforts were put on hold or abandoned and consumers went back to their old "gas guzzler" habits. In a sense--by your leave, TGB will be a bit vulgar--oil consumers habits remind him of drug addicts whose habits became so expensive and dangerous that they decided to go for rehabilitation. This alarmed the drug dealers and kingpins, who would then lower their "merchandise" prices to tempt the addicts to go back to their habits. These dealers and kingpins also had other methods of persuasion, but those will not be discussed here.
To get back to the current sharp oil price "bust": TGB was fully expecting a repeat of past consumption habits. However, he is hoping for a pleasant surprise this time: for example, he reads that motorists have become wary and seem to be cutting down on their fuel use despite substantially lower "gas" prices. In addition, there now have begun numerous earnestly organized efforts to find viable alternatives to petroleum and ways to use them to run a developed nation's economy. The specter or climate change is yet another factor motivating reductions in consumption of fossil fuels. And, to be sure, the current and expected near-term states of the economy worldwide play a central role.
Perhaps to emphasize the point a bit more, here is a quote: The EIA also expects that reliance on oil will drop significantly between now and 2030: The EIA also expects that reliance on oil will drop significantly between now and 2030. The United States imported 58 percent of oil consumed in 2007 and is expected to import 41 percent in 2030 (4). This is an estimate by Howard Gruenspecht, acting administrator of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), who expects a major drop in dependence on imported oil in the fulness of time.
It is not normally TGB's practice to engage in Schadenfreude, perhaps best loosely defined as delighting in someone else's misery or setback. But in this case he is hard put to stop himself from thinking that some difficulty for OPEC countries, the Russian Federation, and other such could not happen to more deserving people for the time being.
REFERENCES:
1. Neureiter, N. Presentation at Embassy of Austria, Washington, DC, Dec. 15, 2008.
2. Morrison, J. "Bridge to Somewhere". Washington Times, Dec. 17, 2008, p. A12.
3. Cattaneo, C. Financial Post, Dec. 17, 2008. http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1085922
4. LoBianco, T. "Rise in U.S. demand for oil seen as near nil". Washington Times, Dec. 18, 2008, p. A8.
Posted By Green_Baron00 to Muenchhausen at 12/19/2008 03:31:00 PM
Labels: Norman Neureiter, oil price crash, Science diplomacy
posted by Green_Baron00 @ 3:31 PM
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